Inflation Scorecard: Fed Holds Course

By Brad Zigler

Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.2%

This week's dip in commodity prices gave the Fed yet maneuvering room to keep interest rates unchanged.

Key inflation markers for the week ending Thursday:

• London gold prices slipped another 1.1 percent at the morning fix to an average price of $1,095; the average spot COMEX settlement was $1,090, reflecting a 1.7 percent decline; COMEX activity was dominated by long liquidation as average volume jumped 21.1 percent to 296,000 contracts and open interest fell 7.8 percent to a daily average of 517,000 contracts.

• Three-month London gold lease rates ticked up a basis point (0.01 percent) as forward rates slid lower on Thursday.

• COMEX gold stocks declined by 16,590 ounces; at 9.87 million ounces, inventories cover 19.1 percent of COMEX open interest.

• Junior gold mining stocks, represented by the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDXJ), under-performed senior issues for the second week in a row, falling 5.6 percent; the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDX) eased 3.6 percent, while the S&P 500 Composite dipped 2.9 percent.

• NYMEX nearby crude oil gave up 3.2 percent to average $74.44, notching up the gold/oil multiple from 14.4x to 14.7x;

• Following on a 3 basis point hike in Treasury bill rates, the three-month TED spread fell to an average 19 basis points; lower spreads reflect financial institutions' greater willingness to lend to each other.

• COMEX-implied one-year interest rates continued to contract; rates now command an 18 basis point premium to Treasuries, nearly half last's week's level.

• Long bond rates rose 7 basis points, steepening the Treasury yield curve to 450 basis points.

• The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen against the euro; the Eurozone currency lost 0.9 percent in interbank dealings for an average cross rate of $1.4112.

• Year-over-year monetary inflation averaged 2.6 percent, down from last week's 3.1 percent mean; consequently, the real return on three-month Treasury bills moderated to negative 216 basis points; monetary inflation has been running at an average annual rate of 4.4 percent since 1999.

Real Return On Three-Month T-Bill