Thursday, June 18, 2015

SEC’s Structured Products Chief to Exit

SEC logoThe Securities and Exchange Commission announced Tuesday that Kenneth Lench, chief of the Enforcement Division’s Structured and New Products Unit, will leave the agency for the private sector at the end of July.

Lench, who’s been at the SEC for more than 23 years, has led the unit since its inception in January 2010. The unit conducts investigations into complex financial instruments including asset-backed and derivative securities, and has 45 staffers in eight SEC offices across the country.

“Ken’s determination to always seek the right answers and his devotion to protecting investors by working tirelessly with his staff and colleagues made everyone around him better,” said George Canellos, co-director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement, in a statement. “The Enforcement Division is stronger today because of Ken’s unwavering leadership.”

During Lench’s tenure, the SEC says that the unit filed “significant enforcement actions” against financial services firms that violated federal securities laws during the financial crisis relating to the structuring, marketing, and sale of collateralized debt obligations (CDO) and residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS).

The CDO and RMBS cases filed under Lench’s leadership include Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan (CDO case and RMBS case), Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Mizuho, Wells Fargo/Wachovia, Option One, Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., and RBC Capital Markets.  These cases provide for approximately $1.7 billion in financial recovery for harmed investors.

Lench joined the SEC’s Enforcement Division as a staff attorney in 1990. He was promoted to branch chief in 1995, assistant chief counsel in 2000, and assistant director in 2004. As an assistant director, Lench spearheaded the SEC’s major auction-rate securities settlements with a number of major broker-dealer firms that provided more than $60 billion in liquidity to tens of thousands of investors.

He also led significant investigations into matters involving financial and accounting fraud, Foreign Corrupt Practices Act violations, and hedge fund fraud cases.

Besides serving in the Enforcement Division, Lench was in the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance from 1999 to 2000.

Lench, who was in private practice prior to his arrival at the SEC, received his B.A. from Brandeis University and his J.D. from Boston University School of Law.

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Check out How the SEC Stacks the Deck on ThinkAdvisor.

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Bull of the Day: Pilgrim's Pride (PPC) - Bull of the Day

Pilgrim's Pride (PPC) has seen some big action on recent Friday's, carries a great valuation and will be reporting earnings soon. It is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). It is the Bull of the Day.I Feel Like Chicken TonightIf the title line of this section is lost on you then I am showing my age a bit. That was a popular tag line from a commercial in the 80's but it's clear that the sentiment still rings true.With a 19% share of the domestic market, Pilgrim's Pride has a firm grip on second place behind Tyson's 22%. The 36 million bird weekly capacity also tells you that plenty of people are eating chicken.Company DescriptionPilgrim's Pride produces, processes and markets fresh, frozen, and value-added chicken products in the United States, Mexico, and Puerto Rico. The company was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Greeley, Colorado. As of December 28, 2009, Pilgrim's Pride Corporation operates as a subsidiary of JBS USA Holdings, Inc. Earnings HistoryLooking to the earnings history, I see a stock that has beaten the number in two of the three most recent reports. The most recent quarter was a miss of $0.02, which translated into a negative earnings surprise of 8.7%. The two previous quarters had the analyst guessing where the number was going to come in and they were pretty light. The September 2012 quarter was s beat of $0.11 or 183%, and that was followed up by an even more impressive $0.17 beat for the December 2012 quarter. That translated to a beat of 212%, which isn't exactly chicken feed.Not a Small ChickenPPC has approximately 37,500 employees and 30 hatcheries. They also have 3,900 growers and 26 feed mills with production facilities throughout the Southeast of the United States, Mexico and Puerto Rico. The company sells to a wide range of food service companies like US Foodservice, Yum Brands, Wendy's, Burger King and ConAgra Foods. on the retail side, PCC sells to grocers like Walmart, Publix, Kroger and SuperValu among others.Earnings Estimates Tic! k HigherEstimates for FY2013 have been moving higher and higher. The 2013 calendar year started out with the Zacks Consensus sitting at $0.86, but that number jumped to $1.31 in April, and then again to $1.49 in May and now sits at $1.65. That is some excellent growth of nearly 100% in just six months.The picture for 2014 is a little less clear, but still shows some growth. The Zacks Consensus for next year started the year at $1.18 and ticked higher to $1.22 in April. A big move up to $1.41 the following month and a subsequent move to $1.47 at the current level. ValuationThe valuation picture for PPC is a good one. With a trailing PE of 20.8x the stock trades at a very small premium to the industry average of 19.5x. Not that great, but not that bad either. The impressive valuation metric is the forward PE of 9.3x compared to the 18x industry average. That is a significant discount for such a large player in the industry. The price to book of 4.1x carries a small premium to the 3.6x metric for the industry. Price to sales of 0.5x is only a fraction of the 2.4x industry average, so lots of room to expand there.The Chart The year to date price chart of PPC stock shows a few recent big up days. Both were more than 10% moves and both came on Friday's in June. Last Friday, 7/5 saw a surge of buying at the close, but nothing like the recent big moves. Is it at all a coincidence that PPC is the Bull of the Day on this second Friday in July? Well, I am not a believer in Easter Bunny or coincidences, just merely the appearance of said bunny and coincidences. How else to do explain all those egg hunts, chocolates and foam bunny treats? As for the stock, I like it here and beyond the August 1, 2013 earnings release. Brian Bolan is a Stock Strategist for Zacks.com. He is the Editor in charge of the Zacks Home Run Investor service, a Buy and Hold service where he recomm! ends the ! stocks in the portfolio.Brian is also the editor of Breakout Growth Trader a trading service that focuses on small cap stocks and also carries a risk limiting strategy. Subscribers get daily emails along with buy, and sell alerts.Follow Brian Bolan on twitter at @BBolan1Like Brian Bolan on Facebook

Sunday, June 14, 2015

Bond Basics: Tips for Today's Market

Jim Stack, market historian and editor of InvesTech Market Analyst, offers common-sense tips for bond buyers in the current economic and interest rate environment.

Over the past couple months, there's been a dramatic shift in the bond market that has many investors worried about their fixed income safety nets.

The recent distress in the bond market is due to a sudden rise in long-term interest rates, driven by fear that the Federal Reserve will start backing off its quantitative easing.

These programs were started by the Fed in 2009 to buy long-term bonds. These purchases have helped support higher bond prices, and have kept long-term yields and mortgage rates low.

However, the Federal Reserve is now confirming its intent to start tapering its bond buying activities by year-end, depending on the economy. Meanwhile, the yield on the ten-year bond climbed from 1.6% to as high as 2.7% in just a couple months.

While the sharpness of the bond sell-off may partly be a knee-jerk reaction to the anticipated Fed move, it illustrates the potential losses that can occur in fixed income investments...particularly in bond funds.

As seasoned investors know, bond prices fluctuate with interest rates. If rates go up, the value of bonds declines. This isn't a problem with individual bonds if you hold them to maturity. As long as the company doesn't default, you'll always get your money back, plus the coupon interest.

With bond funds, however, there is no maturity date or par value. The fund's price, or (NAV), depends on the current value of the bonds in the underlying portfolio, and in a negative bond environment, that could be much lower than your initial investment.

The critical question for bond holders is, "Where are interest rates headed in the future?" Bond funds tend to thrive when inflation pressures and interest rates are low or declining, which has been the case over the past 30 years.

Interest rates today are at the lowest level in decades, with the yield on the ten-year bond well below the 50-year average of 6.6%.

Given this historical context, coupled with an end to QE stimulus, we believe inflation and interest rates will head higher. The recent 1% uptick in rates is barely perceptible on a long-term graph, but it may be just the tip of the iceberg going forward.

Over the next decade, the primary risk for bond fund investors is from rising inflation, leading to higher interest rates and declining bond prices.

To find a previous period that might be comparable, we have to go back 40 years, to a time when the tame inflation of the 1960s gave way to rising inflation during the 1970s. Only a handful of bond funds have survived from that era. The rest have been merged out of existence due to poor performance.

Clearly, investing in bonds requires careful planning and monitoring, as the current monetary environment continues to evolve.

Despite the fact that bond funds are not as invincible as they seem, and the road ahead is uncertain, many investors want to hold part of their assets in fixed income investments for diversification. Thus, we'll offer some tips for today's bond investors...

Buy individual bonds, not bond funds.

Unless an individual bond defaults, you'll get your initial investment back, as well as the interest payments. With bond funds, there is no maturity date or par value—they continually have to accept new investments and meet redemptions, regardless of current market conditions. Bond fund prices constantly fluctuate depending on cash flows, current inflation, and interest rates.

Always buy quality...stay with investment grade bonds or Treasuries.

Bond issuers are rated by Standard & Poor's on a scale ranging from AAA for the most credit worthy firms, to C on the speculative or low end. Moody's and Fitch offer similar ratings. Bonds that are rated BBB or better are investment grade. Bonds rated BB or lower have significantly higher risk of default and should be avoided.

Ladder maturities, but keep them on the short end of the scale.

Select individual bonds so that part of the portfolio matures each year. For now, we recommend staying with shorter maturities of less than five years. As interest rates rise, you'll be able to take advantage of higher yields when bonds are replaced.

If you can only invest in mutual funds, stay with high-credit, quality, short duration bond funds, or even cash, or a money market fund, for money you can't afford to lose.

When evaluating bond funds, duration is a more useful gauge than average maturity, as it also takes into account the present value of future coupon and principal payments, and provides a good indication of the fund's sensitivity to interest rates.

The greater the fund's duration, the more sensitive the fund's share price will be to changes in interest rates. Although it's not a precise measurement, a bond fund with a duration of five years would be expected to lose 5% in value for every 1%-point increase in long-term interest rates.

A duration of ten years would imply a 10% reduction in NAV for every 1%-point increase in rates. Bond fund durations can be found at Morningstar.com or on the fund's Web site.

Never stretch for yield.

The only way to get higher yield in today's market is through longer maturity or lower credit quality. Remember, there's no free lunch...higher yield invariably means higher risk.

As Mark Twain once said, "I am more concerned with the return of my money than the return on my money." And most bond investors today probably share that sentiment if their primary concern is protection and preservation of fixed income assets.

Subscribe to InvesTech Market Analyst here…

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Tuesday, June 9, 2015

How Apple May Differentiate the iPhone 5S

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) is struggling to keep its lead in smartphones as competition -- particularly Samsung and its Google-powered (NASDAQ: GOOG  )  Android operating system -- continues to bring the heat. In the video below, Fool contributor Daniel Sparks explains how competition has weighed on Apple shares, and why the company needs a successful iPhone 5S for the stock to have any hope of reviving itself.

What does Apple have in store to make the 5S a hit? Daniel outlines two potential differentiators.

Five enter, one leaves
It's incredible to think just how much of our digital and technological lives are almost entirely shaped and molded by just a handful of companies. Find out "Who Will Win the War Between the 5 Biggest Tech Stocks?" in The Motley Fool's latest free report, which details the knock-down, drag-out battle being waged by the five kings of tech. Click here to keep reading.

Monday, June 8, 2015

Is a Revenue Miss Coming for Regal Beloit?

There's no foolproof way to know the future for Regal Beloit (NYSE: RBC  ) or any other company. However, certain clues may help you see potential stumbles before they happen -- and before your stock craters as a result.

A cloudy crystal ball
In this series, we use accounts receivable and days sales outstanding to judge a company's current health and future prospects. It's an important step in separating the pretenders from the market's best stocks. Alone, AR -- the amount of money owed the company -- and DSO -- the number of days' worth of sales owed to the company -- don't tell you much. However, by considering the trends in AR and DSO, you can sometimes get a window onto the future.

Sometimes, problems with AR or DSO simply indicate a change in the business (like an acquisition), or lax collections. However, AR that grows more quickly than revenue, or ballooning DSO, can, at times, suggest a desperate company that's trying to boost sales by giving its customers overly generous payment terms. Alternately, it can indicate that the company sprinted to book a load of sales at the end of the quarter, like used-car dealers on the 29th of the month. (Sometimes, companies do both.)

Why might an upstanding firm like Regal Beloit do this? For the same reason any other company might: to make the numbers. Investors don't like revenue shortfalls, and employees don't like reporting them to their superiors.

Is Regal Beloit sending any potential warning signs? Take a look at the chart below, which plots revenue growth against AR growth, and DSO:

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. FQ = fiscal quarter.

The standard way to calculate DSO uses average accounts receivable. I prefer to look at end-of-quarter receivables, but I've plotted both above.

Watching the trends
When that red line (AR growth) crosses above the green line (revenue growth), I know I need to consult the filings. Similarly, a spike in the blue bars indicates a trend worth worrying about. Regal Beloit's latest average DSO stands at 55.9 days, and the end-of-quarter figure is 59.6 days. Differences in business models can generate variations in DSO, and business needs can require occasional fluctuations, but all things being equal, I like to see this figure stay steady. So, let's get back to our original question: Based on DSO and sales, does Regal Beloit look like it might miss its numbers in the next quarter or two?

The numbers don't paint a clear picture. For the last fully reported fiscal quarter, Regal Beloit's year-over-year revenue shrank 3.7%, and its AR grew 0.1%. That looks OK. End-of-quarter DSO increased 3.9% over the prior-year quarter. It was up 5.0% versus the prior quarter. Still, I'm no fortuneteller, and these are just numbers. Investors putting their money on the line always need to dig into the filings for the root causes and draw their own conclusions.

If you're interested in companies like Regal Beloit, you might want to check out the jaw-dropping technology that's about to put 100 million Chinese factory workers out on the street – and the 3 companies that control it. We'll tell you all about them in "The Future is Made in America." Click here for instant access to this free report.

Add Regal Beloit to My Watchlist.

Thursday, June 4, 2015

U.S. Factory, Jobs Data Suggest Economy is Slowing

factory worker economic slowdown AJ Mast/AP WASHINGTON -- The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose last week and factory activity in the nation's Mid-Atlantic region cooled in April, further signs of a moderation in economic growth. The softening growth outlook was also underscored by another report on Thursday showing a gauge of future economic activity fell in March for the first time in seven months. They were the latest data to indicate a step-back in the economy after a brisk start to the year as tighter fiscal policy began to weigh. "The evidence is mounting that the economy lost momentum in March and that has carried to April," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pa. "Growth is slowing down as the tax increases and sequester take effect." Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 352,000 the Labor Department said. The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, rose 2,750 to 361,250. Despite the rise, which was broadly in line with economists' expectations, claims held near a level economists normally associate with average monthly job gains of more than 150,000. That helped ease concerns of a deterioration in labor market conditions after nonfarm payrolls posted their smallest increase in nine months in March. "Labor market conditions still appear to be grinding forward, but pushing against the weight of a slowing economy and subdued confidence," said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors in Kalamazoo, Mich. Downbeat Outlook In separate report, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index fell to 1.3 in April from a reading of 2.0 in March. A reading above zero indicates expansion in the region's manufacturing. Details of the survey which covers factories in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware, were weak. Measures of factory employment and new orders contracted. A third report supported views the economy was again headed for a soft patch this spring, in a replay of the last two years. The Conference Board said its Leading Economic Index dropped 0.1 percent to 94.7 last month, the first drop since August. U.S. stocks fell on the data, while Treasury debt prices were little changed. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. Last week's claims data covered the survey period for April nonfarm payrolls. Claims increased 11,000 between the March and April survey periods. Given recent volatility because of the early Easter and spring breaks this year, claims probably aren't useful in trying to gauge April payrolls. Employers added 88,000 workers to their payrolls last month after a solid 268,000 increase in February. While there is no doubt job growth has slowed in line with the overall economy, economists said March's meager gains overstated the labor market's weakness. "We see nothing in the jobless claims data to either suggest that job growth has deteriorated further since March or even to support the view that March's payroll gain represents a new trend," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

Mood Map: How the results are calculated

davos mood map tease NEW YORK (CNNMoney) CNNMoney's Mood Map gives you the chance to share your feelings about the state of the economy.

You can compare your results with those from other countries, and see how the economic climate in your country compares to the

rest of the world.

The four questions you answer have multiple choice answers, representing sentiments from positive to negative. Once submitted, we consolidate the answers and color the world map, based on an average of the responses for each country.

So if 50% of respondents were very positive and 50% very negative, the country in question would be colored from the center of the scale. We also show how many people have responded in each country.

This is not a scientific poll. The results only indicate the sentiments felt by CNNMoney and CNN.com users and may not reflect public opinion.

Monday, June 1, 2015

Cardica and Acorn Energy... Two Good, But Unrecognized, Bets (CRDC, ACFN)

Neither Acorn Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:ACFN) nor Cardica, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRDC) may look all that compelling with just a passing glance. The longer one examines CRDC and ACFN, however - and really gets a grasp of their underlying stories - the more compelling each one becomes. In fact, newcomers may want to go ahead and put both budding stocks on their watchlists, if not in their portfolios.

CRCD is a medical device maker. Specifically, Cardica, Inc. makes anastomotic systems for cardiac surgeries. And, last quarter's results rolled in far better than anticipated, kick-starting a rally from the stock that may have changed things on a permanent basis. In fact, it's this new paradigm for the stock that makes a trade so juicy right now.

As the nearby chart illustrates, the inevitable pushback from the rally in June was stopped rather abruptly, with CRDC only needing to brush the 200-day moving average line (green) to inspire another round of buying. It's the first time in years we've seen Cardica actually find support rather than resistance at a key ling in the sand. It's also the first time in years we've seen any real hints that the bulls are ready to hold their ground.

As for Acorn Energy, it's anything but a household name. ACFN is a $60 million maker of high-end sensors used in a variety of ways.... energy infrastructure, cell phone towers, and even defense technology. Business has been pretty good too, with four straight years of sales growth, even if losses have widened along the way.

That's not the reason a newcomer would want to own a stake in Acorn Energy Inc. right now, however. The most attractive part of ACFN here is the way shares have fought their way above a near-term ceiling at $2.66 after we saw a key reversal effort - on high volume - take shape in early June. The 100-day moving average line (gray) seems to be a point of contention, but the bulls are thus far winning the war.

While both Acorn Energy and Cardica may not necessarily be back in long-term uptrends because of recently-developed clues, the short-term upside here is potentially juicy, and worth a shot.

For more trading ideas and insights like these, be sure to sign up for the free SmallCap Network newsletter. You'll get stock picks, market calls, and more, every day. Here's what you've missed recently.

Sunday, May 31, 2015

French trader arrested after fraud, odyssey

PARIS (AP) — A Frenchman convicted of one of history's biggest trading frauds returned home to serve prison time after a legal saga that captured the national imagination, a pilgrimage to the pope and a plea for presidential clemency.

Former Societe Generale trader Jerome Kerviel was shown in footage broadcast on French television crossing the border from Italy to France by foot late Sunday night.

A police official in the French border town of Menton said Kerviel was in custody in a local precinct just after a midnight deadline to begin serving his sentence. It was not immediately clear when or where he would be taken to prison.

Kerviel cost Societe Generale 4.9 billion euros in losses in 2008, rocking the banking world just before the financial market meltdown. He argued that the bank had quietly welcomed his unauthorized trades when they made money, but turned against him when his trades turned sour.

French judges found Kerviel guilty anyway. He was sentenced to three years in prison in a 2010 verdict that was upheld recently by France's highest court.

But he gained nationwide supporters and turned himself into a crusader against a corrupt financial world.

"The fight will continue regardless of what happens," he told journalists while walking toward the border Sunday night.

Before the deadline to begin serving his sentence, Kerviel traveled to Italy to meet the pope and on Saturday appealed to French President Francois Hollande to intervene. Hollande's office said it would consider a specific request for mercy "according to the usual procedure."

But Finance Minister Michel Sapin described Kerviel on Sunday as a criminal.

"The crook is caught, the crook is convicted, the crook should of course serve his sentence," Sapin said Sunday on LCI television.

An internal report by Societe Generale found that managers failed to follow up on 74 different alarms about Kerviel's activities. A few executives resigned, and Kerviel's superiors were questione! d, but none faced charges.

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Mt. Gox Set to Liquidate as Court Denies Rehabilitation

Defunct Bitcoin Exchange Mt. Gox Files for Liquidation Rick Bowmer/AP Mt. Gox, once the world's biggest bitcoin exchange, is likely to be liquidated after a Tokyo court dismissed the company's bid to resuscitate its business, the court-appointed administrator said Wednesday. CEO Mark Karpeles is also likely to be investigated for liability in the collapse of the Tokyo-based firm, the provisional administrator, lawyer Nobuaki Kobayashi, said in a statement published on the Mt. Gox website. "The Tokyo District Court recognized that it would be difficult for the company to carry out the civil rehabilitation proceedings and dismissed the application for the commencement of the civil rehabilitation proceedings," he said. Mt. Gox filed for bankruptcy protection from creditors in Japan in late February, saying it may have lost some 850,000 bitcoins -- worth around $454 million at today's rates -- due to hacking into its computer system. It later said it had found 200,000 of those bitcoins. In Wednesday's order for provisional administration, the court put the company's assets under Kobayashi's control until bankruptcy proceedings officially commence and a bankruptcy trustee is named. "It is expected that, if the bankruptcy proceedings commence, an investigation regarding the liability of the representative director of the company will be conducted as part of the bankruptcy proceedings," it said. Karpeles didn't immediately respond to an email seeking comment. Kobayashi didn't refer to an offer made last month by a group of investors, including former child actor-turned entrepreneur Brock Pierce, to take over Mt. Gox. But he said such offers would be taken into consideration. The court's decision comes after Karpeles' lawyers told a U.S. federal judge this week that he isn't willing to travel to the United States to answer questions about the bitcoin exchange's U.S. bankruptcy case.

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Ways to Save on Taxes All Year Round

Cut TaxesGetty Images If you managed to claim every possible tax break that you deserved when you filed your return last spring, pat yourself on the back. But don't stop there. Those tax-filing maneuvers were certainly valuable, but you may be able to rack up even bigger savings through thoughtful tax planning all year round. The following ideas could really pay off in the months and years ahead. Give yourself a raise. If you got a big tax refund this year, it meant that you're having too much tax taken out of your paycheck every payday. Filing a new W-4 form with your employer (talk to your payroll office) will insure that you get more of your money when you earn it. If you're just average, you deserve about $225 a month extra. Try our easy withholding calculator now to see if you deserve more allowances. Boost your retirement savings. One of the best ways to lower your tax bill is to reduce your taxable income. You can contribute to up to $17,500 to your 401(k) or similar retirement savings plan in 2010 ($22,000 if you are 50 or older by the end of the year). Money contributed to the plan is not included in your taxable income. Haven't started one yet? Read Why You Need a 401(k) Right Away. Switch to a Roth 401(k). But if you are concerned about skyrocketing taxes in the future, or if you just want to diversify your taxable income in retirement, considering shifting some or all of your retirement plan contributions to a Roth 401(k) if your employer offers one. Unlike the regular 401(k), you don't get a tax break when your money goes into a Roth. On the other hand, money coming out of a Roth 401(k) in retirement will be tax-free, while cash coming out of a regular 401(k) will be taxed in your top bracket. Just remember that you'll have to pay income taxes on the amount you convert. Advertisement Fund an IRA. If you don't have a retirement plan at work, or you want to augment your savings, you can stash money in an IRA. You can contribute up to $5,500 ($6,500 if you are 50 or older by the end of the year). Depending on your income and whether you participate in a retirement savings plan at work, you may be able to deduct some or all of your IRA contribution. Or, you can choose to forgo the upfront tax break and contribute to a Roth IRA that will allow you to take tax-free withdrawals in retirement. Go for a health tax break. Be aggressive if your employer offers a medical reimbursement account -- sometimes called a flex plan. These plans let you divert part of your salary to an account which you can then tap to pay medical bills. The advantage? You avoid both income and Social Security tax on the money, and that can save you 20 percent to 35 percent or more compared with spending after-tax money. The maximum you can contribute to a health care flex plan is $2,500. Pay child-care bills with pre-tax dollars. After taxes, it can easily take $7,500 or more of salary to pay $5,000 worth of child care expenses. But, if you use a child-care reimbursement account at work to pay those bills, you get to use pre-tax dollars. That can save you one-third or more of the cost, since you avoid both income and Social Security taxes. If your boss offers such a plan, take advantage of it. Ask your boss to pay for you to improve yourself. Companies can offer employees up to $5,250 of educational assistance tax-free each year. That means the boss pays the bills but the amount doesn't show up as part of your salary on your W-2. The courses don't even have to be job-related, and even graduate-level courses qualify. Be smart if you're a teacher or aide. Keep receipts for what you spend out of pocket for books, supplies and other classroom materials. You can deduct up to $250 of such out-of-pocket expenses ... even if you don't itemize. Pay back a 401(k) loan before leaving the job. Failing to do so means the loan amount will be considered a distribution that will be taxed in your top bracket and, if you're younger than 55 in the year you leave your job, hit with a 10 percent penalty, too. Tally job-hunting expenses. If you count yourself among the millions of Americans who are unemployed, make sure you keep track of your job-hunting costs. As long as you're looking for a new position in the same line of work (your first job doesn't qualify), you can deduct job-hunting costs including travel expenses such as the cost of food, lodging and transportation, if your search takes you away from home overnight. Such costs are miscellaneous expenses, deductible to the extent all such costs exceed 2 percent of your adjusted gross income. Keep track of the cost of moving to a new job. If the new job is at least 50 miles farther from your old home than your old job was, you can deduct the cost of the move ... even if you don't itemize expenses. If it's your first job, the mileage test is met if the new job is at least 50 miles away from your old home. You can deduct the cost of moving yourself and your belongings. If you drive your own car, you can deduct 24 cents a mile for a 2013 move, plus parking and tolls. If you move in 2014, the rate is 23.5 center a mile. Save energy, save taxes. Congress extended a $500 tax credit for energy-efficient home improvements, such as new windows, doors and skylights, through 2013. Be advised, though, that $500 is the lifetime maximum, so if you claimed $500 in energy-efficient credits before this year, you can't claim this credit. There are also restrictions on specific projects; for example, the maximum you can claim for new energy-efficient windows is $200. Think green. A separate tax credit is available for homeowners who install alternative energy equipment. It equals 30 percent of what a homeowner spends on qualifying property such as solar electric systems, solar hot water heaters, geothermal heat pumps, and wind turbines, including labor costs. There is no cap on this tax credit, which is available through 2016. Put away your checkbook. If you plan to make a significant gift to charity, consider giving appreciated stocks or mutual fund shares that you've owned for more than one year instead of cash. Doing so supercharges the saving power of your generosity. Your charitable contribution deduction is the fair market value of the securities on the date of the gift, not the amount you paid for the asset, and you never have to pay tax on the profit. However, don't donate stocks or fund shares that lost money. You'd be better off selling the asset, claiming the loss on your taxes, and donating cash to the charity. Tote up out-of-pocket costs of doing good. Keep track of what you spend while doing charitable work, from what you spend on stamps for a fundraiser, to the cost of ingredients for casseroles you make for the homeless, to the number of miles you drive your car for charity (at 14 cents a mile). Add such costs with your cash contributions when figuring your charitable contribution deduction. Time your wedding. If you're planning a wedding near year-end, put the romance aside for a moment to consider the tax consequences. The tax law still includes a "marriage penalty" that forces some pairs to pay more combined tax as a married couple than as singles. For others, tying the knot saves on taxes. Consider whether Uncle Sam would prefer a December or January ceremony. And, whether you have one job between you or two or more, revise withholding at work to reflect the tax bill you'll owe as a couple. Beware of Uncle Sam's interest in your divorce. Watch the tax basis -- that is, the value from which gains or losses will be determined when property is sold -- when working toward an equitable property settlement. One $100,000 asset might be worth a lot more -- or a lot less -- than another, after the IRS gets its share. Remember: Alimony is deductible by the payer and taxable income to the recipient; a property settlement is neither deductible nor taxable. The stork brings tax savings, too. A child born, or adopted, is a blessed event for your tax return. An added dependency exemption will knock $3,950 off your taxable income, and you'll probably qualify for the $1,000 child credit, too. You don't have to wait until you file your return to reap the benefit. Add at least one extra withholding allowance to the W-4 form filed with your employer to cut tax withholding from your paycheck. That will immediately increase your take-home pay.

Monday, May 25, 2015

J.P. Penney at Multi-Decade Lows: Buying Opportunity or Decaying Company?

J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP  ) fell below $5 per share on Tuesday after the company's latest financial update disappointed investors. The stock hasn't been at these levels since 1982, so contrarian investors may feel tempted to consider a long position in the company at discounted prices. However, things could easily continue getting worse before they become any better for J.C. Penney.

Too little, too late
The company announced a 3.1% increase in comparable sales during the nine weeks covering the key months of November and December. Comparable sales during the complete quarter grew by 2% versus the prior year, and this was the first time since the second quarter of 2011 that J.C. Penney reported rising comparable sales.

Management highlighted the fact that the company is delivering improvements even in spite of the challenges affecting the industry over the past few months:

While 2013 brought a lot of change and challenges to J.C. Penney, the steady improvements in our business show that the company's turnaround is on track. In spite of the significant headwinds facing all retailers this season, including unprecedented harsh weather conditions in many parts of the country, we delivered on our promise to generate positive comparable store sales growth in the fourth quarter.

The company also announced that it now has more than $2 billion in excess liquidity, which is a positive sign when it comes to financial sustainability in the middle term.

On the other hand, Wall Street analysts think the company´s sales improvement is too small and comes too late: J.C. Penney received negative comments from Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and Sterne Agee on Tuesday, and the stock fell by almost 17% after the announcement.

The company has been facing stagnant sales and negative margins over the past few years. Management has implemented aggressive promotions to reinvigorate revenues lately, so profit margins most likely remained under heavy pressure during the holiday period. The company doesn't have much to show in terms of sales improvement, either, so things aren't looking good for J.C. Penney.

A dreaded competitive environment
Department stores are facing enormous challenges. Consumers are keeping their wallets closed, online retailers are rapidly gaining market share against bricks-and-mortar stores, and big discounts are becoming a necessity for those that want to protect their share of the pie under such conditions.

Sears Holdings' (NASDAQ: SHLD  ) Sears stores have faced declining sales and falling profit margins in recent years, so the company´s problems can't be entirely blamed on industry conditions. However, Sears reported dismal sales performance during the holiday quarter, with comparable-store sales declining by a worrisome 7.4% versus the prior year.

Sears has turned to cost-cutting and inventory reductions to protect cash flows, but this seems to be hurting the shopping experience even more and aggravating problems on the sales front.

Kohl's (NYSE: KSS  ) hasn't provided specific information regarding performance during the holiday period. However, the company reported a 1.6% decline in comparable-store sales for the quarter ended on Nov. 2. Management is expecting comparable sales for the current quarter to be between flat and a 2% decline, so Kohl's isn't offering many reasons for optimism regarding the possibility of improving conditions for department stores.

Macy's (NYSE: M  ) is a different story, though: The company announced a better-than-expected performance during the holiday period, with comparable sales rising by 4.3% during November and December combined.

Management still made references to the questionable "macroeconomic environment with challenging weather in multiple states" affecting the sector, but the company seems to be sailing through the storm in a remarkably good shape. Macy's is most likely the exception that proves the rule, since most companies in the retail sector seem to be facing some truly heavy economic headwinds.

Turnarounds are always tough, and when the economic context isn't helping, they can become a challenge of enormous proportions. In that light, an investment in J.C. Penney is a materially risky proposition, considering the company's situation and competitive landscape.

Bottom line
A falling stock price doesn't necessarily mean an undervalued company, as the price needs to be compared against the company's fundamentals and business prospects to make sound investment decisions. J.C. Penney isn't showing signs of a sustainable turnaround at this stage, so an investment in the company seems to me like too much risk and uncertainty.

The future of retail
To learn about two retailers with especially good prospects, take a look at The Motley Fool's special free report: "The Death of Wal-Mart: The Real Cash Kings Changing the Face of Retail." In it, you'll see how these two cash kings are able to consistently outperform and how they're planning to ride the waves of retail's changing tide. You can access it by clicking here.

Sunday, May 24, 2015

Wells Fargo to repurchase $94M in securities from family clients

Wells Fargo & Co. must repurchase nearly $94 million in securities from the family of a deceased newsstand magnate who said their adviser misrepresented the investments, arbitrators ruled this week.

According to a ruling time-stamped Tuesday, a group of arbitrators impaneled by Wall Street's industry-funded watchdog, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority Inc., ordered Wells Fargo Advisors to buy back at par, or face value, the municipal auction-rate securities it helped Robert B. Cohen, his family and an affiliated business buy since March 2008.

Mr. Cohen, who died last year, founded Hudson News, the chain of concession stores ubiquitous at U.S. airports and train stations. The family accused Wells Fargo and an adviser of fraudulent and misleading statements about the municipal auction-rate securities, according to Finra records.

Wells Fargo and its major competitors – UBS Wealth Management Americas, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley – have bought back billions of dollars in auction-rate securities and agreed to millions in fines since 2008 to settle charges that they failed to properly supervise their advisers and inform investors about the debt securities.

Many investors found the long-term debts difficult to sell off when markets seized up during the financial crisis. But the Cohens claimed that an adviser told them they would enjoy relatively high rates of return and could earn back their money within months, according to regulatory records.

But the Finra arbitration panel stopped short of granting a request by the family for millions of dollars in other damages.

It also denied a request by the third-largest U.S. brokerage to have the dispute scrubbed from the regulatory records of Wayne, N.J.-based Wells Fargo adviser Timothy P. Shannon, against whom a case is still pending, according to regulatory records.

“We're disappointed in that decision, and we are reviewing it,” said Tony Mattera, a Wells Fargo spokesman. Mr. Shannon has previously denied the allegations.

Neither Wells Fargo nor the lawyer representing the investors immediately responded to a request for comment.

The Wall Street Journal first reported the award Friday afternoon. Like what you've read?

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

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Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Calif. finds more instances of offshore fracking

LONG BEACH, Calif. (AP) — The oil production technique known as fracking is more widespread and frequently used in the offshore platforms and man-made islands near some of California's most populous and famous coastal communities than state officials believed.

In waters off Long Beach, Seal Beach and Huntington Beach — some of the region's most popular surfing strands and tourist attractions — oil companies have used fracking at least 203 times at six sites in the past two decades, according to interviews and drilling records obtained by The Associated Press through a public records request.

Just this year in Long Beach Harbor, the nation's second-largest container port, an oil company with exclusive rights to drill there completed five fracks on palm tree-lined, man-made islands. Other companies fracked more than a dozen times from old oil platforms off Huntington Beach and Seal Beach over the past five years.

Though there is no evidence offshore hydraulic fracturing has led to any spills or chemical leaks, the practice occurs with little state or federal oversight of the operations.

The state agency that leases lands and waters to oil companies said officials found new instances of fracking after searching records as part of a review after the AP reported this summer about fracking in federal waters off California, an area from three miles to 200 miles offshore. The state oil permitting agency said it doesn't track fracking.

As the state continues its investigation into the extent of fracking — both in federal waters and closer to shore — and develops ways to increase oversight under a law that takes effect in 2015, environmental groups are calling for a moratorium on the practice.

"How is it that nobody in state government knew anything about this? It's a huge institutional failure," said Kassie Siegel, an attorney with the Center for Biological Diversity. "Offshore fracking is far more common than anyone realized."

Little is known about the effects ! on the marine environment of fracking, which shoots water, sand and chemicals at high pressure to clear old wells or crack rock formations to free oil. Yet neither state nor federal environmental regulators have had any role in overseeing the practice as it increased to revitalize old wells.

New oil leases off the state's shores have been prohibited since a 1969 oil platform blowout off Santa Barbara, which fouled miles of coastline and gave rise to the modern environmental movement. With no room for physical expansion, oil companies instead have turned to fracking to keep the oil flowing.

The state launched an investigation into the extent of offshore fracking after the AP report in August. California officials initially said at the time there was no record of fracking in the nearshore waters it oversees. Now, as the State Lands Commission and other agencies review records and find more instances of fracking, officials are confused over who exactly is in charge of ensuring the technique is monitored and performed safely.

"We still need to sort out what authority, if any, we have over fracking operations in state waters; it's very complicated," said Alison Dettmer, a deputy director of the California Coastal Commission.

Nowhere is the fracking more concentrated than in Long Beach, an oil town with a half-million residents and tourist draws such as the Queen Mary.

The city's oil arrangement stems from a deal drawn up in 1911, when California granted the tidelands and other water-covered areas to the city as it developed its harbor. When oil was discovered in the 1930s, the money started coming in.

Workers walk near near the oil pumps on one of the four artificial THUMS islands in San Pedro Bay off the coa! st of Lon! g Beach, Calif., used for oil drilling Thursday, Oct. 3, 2013 in Long Beech, Calif.(Photo: Chris Carlson, AP)

Long Beach transferred $352 million of $581 million in profits to state coffers in fiscal year 2013 from onshore and offshore operations, according to the city's Gas and Oil Department. Most of the oil recovery comes from traditional drilling while fracking accounts for about 10 percent of the work.

The department says fracking is safe. It has a spill contingency plan and monitors pipelines. Well construction designs are approved by state oil regulators. The designs can be used for conventional drilling and fracking. And the oil industry says offshore fracks are much smaller operations than onshore jobs, involving only a fraction of the chemicals and water used on land.

City oil officials see themselves as partners with Occidental Petroleum Corp. — not regulators — though officials participate in the company's internal audits and technical reviews by the state.

Occidental and the city briefly took a fracking timeout after passage of the state's new rules. Long Beach oil operations manager Kevin Tougas said there are plans to frack again later this year. Occidental spokeswoman Susie Geiger said in an email that the company doesn't discuss its operations due to "competitive and proprietary reasons."

No one is tracking the amounts or precise composition of any fracking chemicals that enter the marine environment, though in September the state passed a law that starting in 2015 would require disclosure of agents used during the procedures.

Fracking fluids can be made up of hundreds of chemicals — some known and others not since they are protected as trade secrets. Some of these chemicals are toxic to fish larvae and crustaceans, bottom dwellers most at risk from drilling activities, according to government health disclosure documents.

Myriad state agencies that oversee drilling, water quality and the ocean said they did no monitoring of fracking chemic! als durin! g offshore jobs.

Don Drysdale, a spokesman for the California Department of Oil, Gas and Geothermal Resources, said the new regulations will include "extensive protections" for groundwater.

The industry estimates that about half of the fluids used during fracking remain in the environment; environmentalists say it is much higher. Long Beach says it uses a closed system and there's no discharge into the water. Instead, fluids are treated before being re-injected deep under the seafloor.

The Long Beach Water Department, which monitors well water quality annually, said there are no known impacts to residents' water from fracking.

"It's our hometown," said Chris Garner, a fourth-generation resident who heads the gas and oil department. "We have a vested interest in making sure the oil operations have been without harm to the city."

___

Reach Alicia Chang and Jason Dearen at http://twitter.com/SciWriAlicia and http://twitter.com/JHDearen

Monday, May 18, 2015

Verizon Shares Set to Rise on Upbeat Earnings

Earns Verizon (In this Sunday, April 7, 2013, photo, a Verizon Studio booth is seen at MetLife Stadium, in East Rutherford, N.J.Mel Evans/AP NEW YORK -- Verizon Communications on Thursday posted stronger- than-expected third-quarter earnings and revenue on strong wireless growth, sending its shares up 2.4 percent in early trade. While the company's wireless customer growth numbers were slightly below Wall Street estimates, its Verizon Wireless venture with Vodafone Group (VOD) posted good profit and revenue growth as customers spent more on their services. "The numbers were fine but it wasn't a blowout quarter. It was a good third quarter," said Hudson Square analyst Todd Rethemeier. Verizon Wireless added 927,000 net retail subscribers in the quarter, compared with Wall Street expectations of about 1 million customers, according to eight analysts, with estimates ranging from 900,000 to 1.2 million. Verizon has agreed to buy out Vodafone's 45 percent share of the mobile venture. Verizon (VZ) said it expects wireless customer growth to improve sequentially in the fourth quarter. Verizon reported a third-quarter profit of $2.2 billion, or 78 cents a share, compared with $1.59 billion, or 56 cents a share, a year ago. Excluding unusual items, Verizon earned 77 cents a share in the quarter, compared with Wall Street expectations of 74 cents, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Revenue rose 4.4 to $30.28 billion from $29.01 billion. Wall Street expected $30.16 billion. Its wireless profit margin was 51.1 percent, based on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization as a percentage of service revenue, and above its target range of 49 percent to 50 percent for the full year. Rethemeier said the profit margin would likely come down in the fourth quarter due to steep holiday season costs, since the company kept its wireless margin target for the year despite the strong third-quarter number. A 7.2 percent increase in wireless revenue for the quarter was offset by a slower 4.3 percent rise in wireline revenue. Verizon shares rose 2.4 percent to $48.40 in premarket trading after closing at $47.25 in the regular New York Stock Exchange session.

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Find Big Bargains in Big Dividends With This Europe ETF

Facebook Logo Twitter Logo LinkedIn Logo Google Plus Logo RSS Logo Jeff Reeves Popular Posts: 5 Stocks Under $10 a Share to Buy Now5 Best Dividend Funds for the Fall5 Best Stocks for Continued Dividend Growth Recent Posts: Find Big Bargains in Big Dividends With This Europe ETF 5 Best Dividend Funds for the Fall 9 Stable Stocks to Survive Congressional Chaos View All Posts

The U.S. has had a great run in 2013, no doubt about it. But with slowing earnings and steep valuations, the market looks ripe for a contraction in the next few months.

So instead of worrying about slow growth or overly expensive stocks at home, try bargain-hunting in Europe, where values are depressed and a turnaround is under way.

Skeptical? I understand why … a 12% unemployment rate in the eurozone, underperformance since 2011 and general fears about European sovereign debts are admittedly very real challenges.

But there's a lot more going for Europe than many think. And if you can also enjoy a massive 6.8% dividend while playing the content in low-risk large-caps? Well, you should have peace of mind that your investment isn't just a long-shot turnaround bet.

Here's why I am broadly bullish on Europe right now, and specifically the SPDR S&P International Dividend ETF (DWX).

The Bull Case for Europe

There are some very favorable signs coming out of the continent recently, including the fact that in Q2 the EU officially exited its longest recession in 40 years and the fact that unemployment has finally stopped rising and has at least stabilized after EU jobless rate held steady at 12.0% for August.

Yes, 12% is a huge number. But the fact that it has stabilized and will likely start to move lower gives you a great opportunity to buy the turnaround.

That's what's happening already in European stocks, which have outperformed even red-hot U.S. stocks in the past three months or so. Take Germany's DAX 30 stock index — the nation's version of the Dow Jones Industrial Average — that just closed at an all-time high to start October. Considering Germany is the EU's largest economy, this is a very encouraging sign for the continent at large.

Oh yeah, and European equity funds saw the biggest inflows in 11 years lately according to Merrill Lynch analysts. Seems like investors are already moving their money.

If you're uncertain about American equities right now, you should consider following these investors' lead into European stocks.

And the SPDR S&P International Dividend ETF is your best way to do that.

DWX — Your Best Europe ETF

As I mentioned, the DWX has an impressive yield of 6.8% and focuses on large-cap issues outside the United States. And while the fund hasn't budged since spring of 2009 despite the S&P 500 roughly doubling in that same period, now may be the time to enter into this ETF before it takes off.

Main holdings right now include Belgacom, a Belgian telecommunications company; Ferrovial, a Spanish infrastructure company; and TDC, a Danish media giant.

As of right now, the about half of all assets in Europe and the U.K., 22% in Australia, 9% in Canada; the rest is in Asia, South America and even South Africa. So while this isn't a completely focused Europe bet, it is clearly overweight in the region. And in the broader scheme of things, having some geographic diversity may help reduce your risk — something that appeals to many investors in this uncertain market.

Expenses are reasonably low, too, with an annual expense of 0.45%, or $45 on every $10,000 invested. This isn't as cheap as some European ETFs, but it's incredibly affordable considering you're tapping into an asset class that might be impractical otherwise … and with added flexibility.

You see, foreign dividend stocks are notoriously infrequent with their dividend payouts. Take Belgacom, currently the top holding in this ETF. The company has an annualized yield of over 8%, but pays three-quarters of its dividend in April, with a second and smaller distribution in December each year.

Furthermore, to buy Belgacom directly, you'd have to be able to either buy it on the pink sheets where volume is incredibly thin, or buy it on the Euronext exchange. Furthermore, financial information is often harder to obtain and digest when you're picking individual stocks overseas.

So why not simply buy the high-yield DWX fund, which pays dividends quarterly and takes the guesswork out of stock analysis?

So if you're fed up with American equity, take a serious look at European exposure via this ETF. In addition to the exposure to this foreign market, there are a host of other benefits that DWX has to offer including a built-in diversification and ease of trading.

And when you throw in the big dividend, the SPDR S&P International Dividend ETF stands out among other investments in the same arena.

Jeff Reeves is the editor of InvestorPlace.com and the author of The Frugal Investor's Guide to Finding Great Stocks. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Write him at editor@investorplace.com or follow him on Twitter via @JeffReevesIP. 

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Facebook runs at $50 as analysts turn into fans

Facebook stock is setting record highs as Wall Street analysts keep rushing to slap "buy" ratings on the stock and boost price targets.

Shares of Facebook jumped $1.01 to close at $49.46 Wednesday as another Wall Street analyst put out bullish notes on the largest social-networking company.

Canaccord Genuity started covering Facebook stock with a buy rating with a price target of $60 a share, pointing to the company's advertising strength.

But Canaccord is just the latest in what's been a powerful pileup of bullish analyst notes. On Tuesday, shares of Facebook jumped after Citigroup upgraded the stock to a buy, saying that the company's momentum is sustainable.

Now, the chorus of Wall Street analysts is largely bullish, with an average "outperform" rating on Facebook shares, says S&P Capital IQ. The median price target from the 39 analysts covering the stock is $47 a share, with the upper part of the range at $60 a share.

The rush of support from Wall Street analysts is a remarkable shift from the days after the initial public offering in May 2012. Shares wound up losing about half their value from the $38-a-share offering price, as Wall Street analysts and investors turned sour on the company's prospects with mobile ads.

TWITTER IPO: Facebook's Zuckerberg offers IPO advice toTwitter

But following Facebook's strong growth in the second quarter, powered largely by mobile ads, investors have been rushing into the shares, pushing them up more than 85% this year.

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Goldman Sachs Removes Extra Space Storage from Conviction Buy List; Lowers PT (EXR)

On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs announced that it has removed Extra Space Storage, Inc. (EXR) from its Conviction Buy List.

The firm has maintained a “Buy” rating on EXR, and has lowered the company’s price target from $51 to $50. This price target suggests a 12% upside from the stock’s current price of $43.94.

Analyst Andrew Rosivach commented: “We think the stock is inexpensive on forward 2018E AFFO, but the higher 2014E multiple may require the stock to consolidate.”

Extra Space Storage shares were down 21 cents, or 0.47%, during Tuesday morning trading. The stock is up 21% YTD.

Sunday, May 10, 2015

Twitter may fly on first day, ‘gray market’ shows

Twitter may fly on its first day of trading.

Twitter is scheduled to set a final price for its initial public offering late Wednesday and debut Thursday. The company may end the day with a market value of $25 billion, according IG, which runs a gray market that lets investors bet on such outcomes.

A $25 billion market capitalization implies a share price of about $46 at the end of the first day. That compares to Twitter's current price range for the IPO of $23 to $25 a share, which implies a valuation of about $17 billion.

"It looks exceptionally positive at the moment," said Brenda Kelly, senior market strategist at IG in London.

Twitter is the most anticipated technology IPO since Facebook's troubled market debut last year. The micro-blogging service has become a media phenomenon, used by presidents, celebrities and kids alike. The company needs to make the platform easier to use and big profits have yet to materialize, but Wall Street is still keen to get involved.

"Twitter is likely to become a core holding for many growth portfolios," said Brad Gastwirth, CEO of ABR Investment Strategy, an independent research firm focused on tech and healthcare.

Twitter raised its IPO price range Monday, suggesting Goldman Sachs and the other banks underwriting the offering are seeing strong demand from investors.

"I would love to invest, but getting stock from Goldman is virtually impossible," said Thomas Wyman, chief investment officer of The Global Internet Fund.

He estimated that the offering is at least ten times over-subscribed, which means that investors have placed orders totaling at least ten times the number of shares that will be sold.

"Even though Facebook's IPO was a disaster at first, this one is set up to perform a lot better," Wyman added.

Facebook priced its IPO at $38 and the stock ended its first day just above that level, then slumped in the weeks following.

IG's gray market initially called for Facebook shares to end their first ! day of trading at about $30. However, on the last day before the market debut exuberance got the better of IG clients as they bet that the stock would surge to $45 or even $48, according to Kelly.

The opposite has happened with Twitter's IPO. About a month ago, IG clients were betting that Twitter would be valued at about $29 billion at the end of the first day of trading. That dropped to roughly $24 billion about a week ago, Kelly noted.

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Maybe Diversification Is Not All It's Cracked Up to Be

There's an old cliché about real estate investing that states that the three cardinal rules are: location, location, location. Clever pundits have borrowed upon this refrain and glibly state that the three most important or cardinal rules of investing are: diversify, diversify, diversify. Careful analysis will reveal that diversification is a multifaceted concept that has different meanings, benefits and even risks depending on how it's used and what its ultimate purpose is. Therefore, my goal is to examine this ubiquitous investing concept from various angles and perspectives.

Diversification Within or Across

When thinking about diversification there are at least two broad categories to contemplate. The first I would call broad diversification or spreading the risk across numerous asset classes. To me, this is analogous to the "throw as much mud on the wall as you can while hoping that some will stick" idea. Many experts advocate the diversifying broadly approach. But the idea of diversifying just for diversification's sake is not always a sound idea. In other words, I would never advocate putting money into an investment that prudent analysis indicated was a bad place to invest just for the sake of so-called diversification.

For example, and I know it is going to generate strong disagreement, I think gold is an asset class at a bubble valuation that should be currently avoided. I sold mine last summer. The following graph courtesy of Goldprice.org says it all. Gold was an attractive investment in the late 1990s to early 2000s, but it is clearly at extremely high levels now. Therefore, I would suggest taking some (or even all) profits. As I have written before, I feel that fixed income (bonds, etc.) is also at an extreme, and therefore, I temporarily also favor avoiding this asset class. I feel that asset classes should only be used for diversification when they are prudent and sound. To force money into a dangerous investment solely for an artificial commitment to diversi! fication makes no sense to me.

Gold, a Twenty-Year History (Courtesy of Goldprice.org)

[ Enlarge Image ]

Furthermore, I tend to have a much narrower view of asset classes than many of my peers. Regarding liquid assets I see only what I call owner-ship or loaner-ship. Where owner-ship represents equity with the investor positioning themselves as an owner/shareholder, and loaner-ship where the investor loans their money at interest. Others might call this equity versus fixed income or stocks versus bonds. In addition to these liquid assets there would also be hard assets such as real estate, precious metals, commodities and art forms that could be considered as options. But the most important point is that deciding what the most appropriate or optimum percentage of your assets should be allocated to these various asset classes is a subject of much debate.

Diversification-what is the goal?

The most common definition, and therefore use, of diversification is as a risk-management technique. This most basic concept of diversification says that you should not put all of your eggs in one basket. On the other hand, assuming that this is wise counsel raises the question: How many baskets is the appropriate number? Should you spread your money over 5 baskets, 10 baskets, 20 baskets, 100 baskets or 1000 baskets? In other words, what is the optimum number of baskets; how many baskets are enough and/or how many are too many?

When dealing with broad diversification, I refer you back to my previous comments regarding equity versus debt. There are many who advocate cute little rules that they promote as the proper way to apply broad diversification. For example, one of the more popular rules of thumb goes something like this: Subtract your age from 100 and put the resulting percentage in stocks; the rest in bonds. In other words, if you're 20 years old, put 80% of your as! sets in s! tocks; 20% in bonds. If you are 60 years old, put 40% of your assets in stocks and 60% in bonds, etc. Somehow, these little rules of thumb leave me cold. A proper asset allocation plan should be based on the individual's goals, objectives and risk tolerances. When dealing with these kinds of issues, one size rarely fits all.

Next there's the issue of whether your diversification objectives are geared towards reducing risk or maximizing return. An investor with a high tolerance for risk would take a different view of what optimum diversification is versus a person who is very risk averse. An individual with a high tolerance for risk might choose only to invest in equities in lieu of owning any fixed income assets. Who can say that this is a bad decision when it suits the investors' goals and risk tolerances? This then takes us to the questions pertaining to optimum diversification within an asset class.

The most interesting aspect of these important questions is the fact that there is no consensus view. Some experts argue in favor of more diversification while others favor less. For example, Charlie Munger, the famed partner of Warren Buffett, believes that three to five companies in a stock portfolio is enough diversification. Charlie is alleged to have said that diversification is for idiots. And he is quoted as saying: "Wide diversification, which necessarily includes investment in mediocre businesses, only guarantees ordinary results." Alternatively, Warren Buffett seems to agree and has said: "Diversification is protection against ignorance."

In contrast, Peter Lynch, the famed manager of the Fidelity Magellan Fund during its glory years held more than 1000 stocks in his portfolio. What is most amazing about this fact is that Peter created one of the strongest long-term track records of any mutual fund that ever existed. Ironically, this is the same man who is credited with coining the phrase "di-worse-i-fication." What many people fail to realize about this is! that Pet! er was referring to an individual company diversifying outside of its core competency through acquisitions. Yet when building his own portfolio, he was happy to own hundreds or even thousands of individual companies.

Then of course there is another aspect of diversifying within an asset class. As it pertains to equities, investors could have a choice of various classes of common stocks. These would include growth stocks versus dividend paying stocks, small stocks versus large stocks, etc. Once again, the investor is faced with the issue of how much should be in growth, how much should be in value, how much should be in large, how much of the small, and on and on. I don't believe there is a general answer. The right answer is the answer that best fits the individual's needs and goals.

And the same concept would apply to investing in bonds. A prudent bond investor might want to ladder their portfolio over various maturities. How much they would allocate to longer maturities versus how much they would allocate to shorter maturities would depend on their belief as to where interest rates might be headed in conjunction with where they feel they are today. If the investor feels that rates are very low they would want to rely more on shorter maturities so that their money would mature into higher interest rates, if they believe rates were going higher. Conversely, if they feel that interest rates are very high they would want to orient their portfolio to the longest maturities possible in order to lock in the higher rates for as long as they possibly could. These considerations would have a major impact on their overall diversification strategy.

There is another argument that the Buffets and Mungers of the world offer against broad diversification. These investors who favor a more concentrated approach believe in essentially two things. First, they believe that extraordinary above-average investments are rare. They further argue that every investment you add would be, or should be, of ! lesser op! portunity than your best choice is. In other words, your best stock will generate a higher return than your second best and so on. Their second belief is that you can only truly know enough about a very select number of companies to be able to invest wisely. Therefore, the more companies you include in your portfolio, the more diluted your knowledge about each will be. In other words they believe in placing all their eggs in one basket (or at least a very few baskets) and then watch that basket very carefully.

Diversification For Maximum Return Or Minimum Risk

As I've previously alluded, diversification is most commonly thought of as a way to reduce risk. However, the opposite side of the diversification coin is rate of return. Diversification, or the lack thereof, will have or should have a large and direct impact on the ultimate return that a portfolio will generate. However, the precise impact is once again a matter of debate. For example, in theory, the more fixed income a portfolio contains the lower the rate of return it would be expected to generate. In his best-selling book "Beating the Street," Peter Lynch offered up this 26th Rule of his 25 Golden Rules of Investing (yes, it was his 26th of 25):

"In the long run, a portfolio of well-chosen stocks and/or equity mutual funds will always outperform a portfolio of bonds or a money market account. In the long run, a portfolio of poorly chosen stocks won't outperform the money left under the mattress."

Or you might prefer Peter's principle number two:

"Gentlemen who prefer bonds don't know what they are missing."

Perhaps the moral of this story is that diversification has its pluses, but also has its minuses. While it can protect against risk and even smooth out long-term returns; it accomplishes all this at a cost. The seminal question is whether or not you, the individual investor, is willing or even capable of paying the price? Or put another way, how much rate of return are you willing to! give up,! to buy how much peace of mind? Again, I see this as an individual decision and perhaps even more importantly, a function of the amount of knowledge you the individual investor possesses and the amount of volatility risk you can endure. Clearly, most of us are not Charlie Munger or Warren Buffett that can afford the luxury of a highly concentrated portfolio. On the other hand, we don't want to be guilty of "di-worse-ification" either. At the end of the day, finding the right balance is as much a personal thing as it is an ironclad principle. At least it is in my way of thinking.

A Fun Look at Diversification Within the Asset Class Equity (stocks)

As I went through the process of researching diversification I came across some interesting results that frankly astounded me. Therefore, I thought it would be fun to share what I discovered. First of all, the primary goal of my research was an attempt to ascertain how much diversification within an asset class was the appropriate amount. Stated more simply, how many stocks were enough to protect the money and how many stocks were too much to dilute or destroy returns. Although I didn't come up with a precise answer that satisfied me, I did discover some fascinating numbers.

Utilizing the F.A.S.T. Graphs research tool I ran 20-year track records on several well-known indices that contained a low of 30 stocks all the way up to 5000 stocks. Before I ran these various records, I assumed that the index with the least number of companies would produce the highest rates of return and vice versa.

30 Dow Jones Industrials' 20-Year Record

My first example is the DJIA, because it is a diversified portfolio but only contains 30 names. As expected, the 30 Dow Jones Industrials did produce the highest rate of return at 7.3% per annum.

[ Enlarge Image ]

The S&P 500 Without Dividends

My second example is the S&P 500. Si! nce the i! ndex contains 500 companies, I expected to see a lower annual rate of return due to the much broader diversification. Even though I was correct, the return differential was only 1.2% per annum coming in at 6.1%. From the standpoint of risk, you could say that you didn't give up much return for the greater safety.

[ Enlarge Image ]

Since this article is all about diversification, I have included the sector breakdown of the S&P 500 in order to illustrate the diversification within this broad index. I found it interesting that Information Technology was the biggest sector at 20.46%. To me this indicates that the S&P 500 is actually an aggressive index, even though it is diversified.

[ Enlarge Image ]

Russell 3000 Index Without Dividends

With my third example I increased the size of the universe by a factor of five by calculating the Russell 3000. Astonishingly, this larger universe actually generated a modestly higher rate of return of 6.3% per annum versus 6.1% for the S&P 500. In this case, greater diversification actually increased my return, but not by very much.

[ Enlarge Image ]

The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000

With my final example I calculated the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 composite which at 5000 names was the biggest index I could find. Remarkably, this biggest index of all produced the highest rate of return at 6.4% per annum.

[ Enlarge Image ]

Frankly, I'm not really certain what to make of the results I discovered. From what I learned, diversification doesn't really impact the rate of return by ! very much! when looked at from the perspective of the average company in the universe. This led me to wondering what a universe of the top 10 best performing stocks might look like. Of course I recognize that the flaw in this line of thinking would be having the foresight to pick the top 10 at the beginning of this exercise. However, my curiosity was not about being smart enough to pick the very best; instead, I was just curious to know what the differentials would actually be.

Therefore, I first sorted the top 10 of the 30 Dow Jones Industrials and listed them in order of best-performing to lowest-performing for the past 20 years. The average performance of an equally weighted investment in each of these candidates would have averaged approximately 13.8% per annum which is just shy of doubling the rate of return for the entire composite of 30 names. To put this into perspective, $1 million equally allocated total investment spread into these top 10 companies would grow to over $12 million in 20 years. I thought this was interesting, but not terribly exciting. The following table shows the results of the top 10 best-performing 30 Dow Jones Industrials with $100,000 invested in each at the beginning of 1993.

[ Enlarge Image ]

With my second example I went to the larger universe of the S&P 500. With a much bigger universe to draw upon a discovered a significantly higher average rate of return. As it relates to diversification, I'm really not sure what this means other than a bigger universe offered a much bigger opportunity to find significantly above-average investments. The top 10 best-performing S&P 500 companies produced an average return of almost 25% per annum. Therefore, the same $1 million equally allocated across these 10 names grew to over $68 million. Now, that number got my attention.

[ Enlarge Image ]

Now, once again, admitting that this last little exercise is fraught with error, I do feel that it revealed some interesting information. Perhaps most importantly, it did reveal a large disparity between the best performers versus the average performance. If you did possess the skills of a legendary investor, you just might be better served to focus your attention on only a few of the very best companies you could identify. For the rest of us we might be best served by placing our money spread out and into more baskets.

Summary and Conclusions

As I began digging into the many faces of diversification, I quickly learned that it is a much more complex concept than at first meets the eye. But perhaps most importantly of all, I feel I learned that there is no one-size-fits-all or even a set of universally applicable rules or principles. To a great extent, diversification turns out to be a very personal issue. How much or how little depends more on your goals and objectives, the knowledge and experience you possess, the time you can allocate to your investment portfolio, and of course, your tolerance for risk. Some of us need a great deal of diversification, while others could do with a lot less.

I will conclude this article by confidently stating that it only scratches the surface of what a comprehensive treatise on diversification would require. In many ways, I feel that I raised more questions than I answered. Therefore, I expect that more articles will be forthcoming. The one area that I feel I shortchanged the most was the area of broad diversification across many different asset classes. Consequently, an article dealing specifically with this aspect of diversification seems like a logical next step. I will end by saying once again that I believe that it is also a very personal concept. But I do believe that no asset class should ever be used unless it makes prudent economic sense to include it.

Discl! osure: Lo! ng MCHP, MSFT, CVX, ESRX, XOM, UTX, CSCO & INTC at the time of writing.

Disclaimer: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned or to solicit transactions or clients. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no circumstances should a person act upon the information contained within. We do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment information without first consulting an investment advisor as to the suitability of such investments for his specific situation.

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Is Activision Too Inactive?

With shares of Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) trading at around $14.90, is ATVI an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

C = Catalyst for the Stock's Movement

For the week ending April 20, Activision had several top-selling games in the TOP 75 (global), but its top spot was #9 with Call of Duty: Black Ops II (X360). Its second spot was at #16 with Call of Duty: Black Ops II (PS3). The next spot claimed by Activision was #28 with Starcraft II: Heart of the Swarm (personal computer). At #58 was Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty (personal computer). Skylanders: Spyro's Adventure and Skylanders Giants also made the list. Overall, that's a decent performance, but Nintendo claimed three of the Top 10 spots with Tomodachi Collection: Shin Seikatsu, Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon, and Fire Emblem: Awakening.

Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ:TTWO) is holding its own with Bioshock Infinite, NBA 2K13, Major League Baseball 2K13, and Grand Theft Auto IV. Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA) is also still making its presence felt with FIFA Soccer 13, Sim City, Madden NFL 13, Battlefield 3, Crysis 3, and Tiger Woods PGA Tour 14.

What stands out most about the information above is: where are all the new and exciting games? Of course, there is a lot being done in regards to game development, but the industry needs something new and fresh – a different angle that will excite gamers once again. Which company is capable of producing such a title?

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Looking at Activision in a big-picture sense (opposed to specific gaming titles), there are many positives, which include:

Consistent profits Free cash flow improvement Consistent annual revenue growth (despite industry concerns) Analysts love the stock: 23 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell A 3.1 of 5 rating on Glassdoor.com (indicates strong company culture) Quality debt management Strong margins 1.30 percent dividend yield (peers don't offer any yield)

There aren't enough negatives to form a list. One potential negative is that the stock didn't hold up well in 2008. However, not many stocks did, and Activision held up better than its peers at that time.

Now let's take a look at some comparative numbers. The chart below compares fundamentals for Activision, Electronic Arts, and Take-Two. Activision has a market cap of $16.61 billion, EA has a market cap of $5.37 billion, and Take-Two has a market cap of $1.34 billion.

ATVI

EA

TTWO

Trailing   P/E

14.67

32.69

N/A

Forward   P/E

14.39

16.11

6.90

Profit   Margin

23.66%

4.42%

-11.18%

ROE

10.54%

8.29%

-19.62%

Operating   Cash Flow

$1.34 Billion

 $378.00 Million

 $11.10 Million

Dividend   Yield

1.30%

N/A

N/A

Short   Position

N/A

5.60%

19.30%

 

Let's take a look at some more important numbers prior to forming an opinion on this stock.

E = Equity to Debt Ratio Is Strong   

The debt-to-equity ratio for Activision is stronger than the industry average of 0.30. Debt management has been superb.

Debt-To-Equity

Cash

Long-Term Debt

ATVI

0.00

$4.38 Billion

$0

EA

0.28

$1.49 Billion

$554.00 Million

TTWO

0.58

$448.72 Million

$330.31 Million

 

T = Technicals Are Strong     

Activision has been a steady performer over the past three years.

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1 Month

Year-To-Date

1 Year

3 Year

ATVI

2.35%

41.38%

17.03%

35.16%

EA

0.51%

23.14%

16.71%

-9.56%

TTWO

-2.86%

41.69%

9.09%

44.44%

 

At $14.90, Activision is trading above all its averages.

50-Day   SMA

14.50

100-Day   SMA

12.97

200-Day   SMA

12.26

 

E = Earnings Have Been Steady                   

Earnings and revenue have consistently improved on an annual basis. This is somewhat rare, and it's certainly a positive.

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Revenue   ($)in   billions

N/A

3.03

4.45

4.76

4.86

Diluted   EPS ($)

N/A

0.09

0.33

0.92

1.01

 

 

12/2011

3/2012

6/2012

9/2012

12/2012

Revenue   ($)in   billions

1.41

1.17

1.08

841.00M

1.77

Diluted   EPS ($)

0.09

0.33

0.16

0.20

0.32

 

Now let's take a look at the next page for the Trends and Conclusion. Is this stock an OUTPERFORM, a WAIT AND SEE, or a STAY AWAY?

T = Trends Might Support the Industry

Changes take place in the industry at a rapid pace. Companies involved must be willing and capable of making necessary adjustments. Creating excitement with a new technological angle or game title is a key to success. It's also imperative that digital is a part of the game plan. The biggest potential negative is consumer weakness, which has been a concern for quite some time now.

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Conclusion

Activision is a very well-run company that's still trading at a fair valuation. There will be setbacks, especially during bear markets, but over the long haul, Activision is a winner. It's also possible that Activision will make an important acquisition at some point in the future. This would increase market share, and Activision has the cash to do it. However, it's not a necessary move.