I think it's fair to say that predicting what's going to be around ten years from now is a pretty difficult task. Unfortunately, it's imperative when choosing your investments. What we do know is that we are going to need energy today, tomorrow, and in 2020. What kind of energy is going to be the leader in market share is not known, so we need to diversify. The world's economy is perpetually expanding over the long term, whether it looks like that now or not. The global demand for energy is going to be significantly more in 10 years than it is now.
Take a look for yourself:
Given those numbers, we know we are going to need one of the following:
- An enormous, abundant source of one type of fuel.
- A combination of several, economically viable sources of energy.
My guess is for the latter to be our solution; none of our current sources have the perfect mix of economic viability, environmental friendliness, and safety.
We currently have the following sources of energy at our disposal:
- Crude oil
- Natural gas
- Solar
- Wind
- Geothermal
- Nuclear
- Coal
- Biomass
- Hydropower
Crude - Currently our cheapest and most readily abundant source of energy. The reserves of "black gold" however are declining, and our need for it is on a steady ascent. Sure, we can deny that, but it won't make the problem go away. I don't know if we'll run out of it. These researchers believe it may happen in 2041. I'm not sure if we'll run out, but the drastic increase in crude prices over the last twenty years show that demand is increasing and supply can't keep up. At this pace, we will most certainly reach a point where oil is not ecnomically viable for the demands of the global economy.
Right now, "demand destruction" seems to occur at about $115.00 USD per barrel. $115 a barrel may become the norm in the semi-near future. In addition, there is a lot of fear about global climate change, and who knows what awaits us in that arena. We may come to a tipping point where we have to stop our habit to pollute. Heck, that might be now. Regardless, while oil will most likely remain to be the major player in the energy space, its days of having a monopoly are over.
Natural Gas - Relatively cleaner than crude or coal, and America has a lot of natural gas. I urge you to read this excellent article from a member of the Seeking Alpha Community on the price comparison of gas to crude. In summary, natural gas is significantly cheaper than crude, and there's a lot of it. Several companies are increasing output, and there are several other huge projects in shale, fracking, etc. This will most likely be a big player in the energy market of the future. There has also been a lot of talk about natural gas cars being the wave of the future. We'll see.
Nuclear - Totally clean, efficient, cheap, what else could you ask for? The Japanese crisis of early 2011 showed the true dangers of nuclear. It also set off many European countries to shut down plans for nuclear growth, and many have sworn off the stuff. While they say that now, its efficiency may cause them to rethink later down the line. Despite its benefits, it has lost its political momentum and has major headwinds.
Solar - I want to love solar. The idea of using the sun to power the world is very simple, yet brilliant. Unfortunately, it turns out that it's pretty hard to get the cost down enough to make it a viable source of major energy. It does work at certain levels, but will most likely not be our path to sustainability on a mass level. Either way, the best companies in the solar space do have some room to grow, and they're worth having in your energy portfolio.
Now for the stocks. I recommend having a diverse group of companies that operate in different industries within the energy sector. Diversity here won't diminish your returns, as much as it will aid you. It is a necessity given the unpredictable nature of future energy policy.
In addition to these stocks, one of the best alternative energy ETFs to invest in is PBD. It will provide you with diversification in the alternative energy industry.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
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