Is China stalling? That’s the question asked in a note this morning from Credit Suisse analysts, who observe that China’s official measure of manufacturing actually fell in January from December, even though private surveys show an increase.
The government-backed Federation of Logistics and Purchasing’s Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) declined to 55.8 last month from 56.6 in December, Credit Suisse notes. That figure is at odds with HSBC’s China manufacturing PMI survey, which actually showed another rise in January, to 57.4 from 56.1.
Credit Suisse is cautious though not wholly negative:
We suspect that China�s growth momentum may be peaking in the near future, as banks are suspending lending and infrastructure investments are moderating. Growth momentum may surprise us on the downside, but we think it is premature to call a second dip in China. A slowdown in lending and property prices could make economic growth more sustainable, but it does raise the growth risk a little at this moment.
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