Sirius Auto Sales: Edmunds Releases Official January 2011 Forecast

By Demian Russian

With Sirius XM Radio’s (SIRI) business model tied so closely to the OEM channel, many analysts and investors alike keep a close watch on how new vehicle sales are tracking. Edmunds.com released their official January auto sales forecast Friday. Edmunds is estimating January new vehicle sales to come in at 816,000 and a monthly SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) of 12.57 million.

January’s sales figures continue a trend of steady, sustainable growth for the auto industry. What’s even more encouraging is that this month’s figures were less dependent on fleet sales than last year. That means 2011 is already seeing a more robust retail market supported by individual consumers.

– Jessica Caldwell, Director of Pricing and Industry Analysis at Edmunds

While Edmunds’ forecast for 816,000 total units sold would indicate a month-over-month decline of 28.4% from December, it also would indicate a year-over-year increase of 17.3% from January 2010. “January is typically the worst sales month of the calendar year, so this is an impressive jumping off point for 2011,” said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. Due to January’s historical weakness, 816,000 units sold is still enough to show a month-over-month SAAR improvement to 12.57 million from December 2010′s 12.48 million SAAR. “Because this year’s January baseline is so much higher than the last two years, carmakers can be reasonably optimistic that this growth can continue,” added Caldwell. January 2011 had 24 selling days, the same as January 2010.

According to Edmunds, average U.S automaker incentives for January are estimated to be $2,516 per vehicle sold, down 0.9% month-over-month, but up 6.9% year-over-year. Edmunds expects the Big 3 U.S. automakers, Ford (NYSE:F), General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Chrysler, combined to show a monthly U.S. market share of 44.8%, which would indicate a year-over-year decline from 45.6% in January 2010, but flat month-over-month.

Edmunds January Sales Predictions For Individual Automakers

Ford will sell 129,000 units — up 12.8 percent month-over-month, but down 30.9 percent year-over-year. Ford will show new car market share of 15.8%, down from 16.5% in January 2010 and down from 16.4% in December 2010.

General Motors will sell 162,600 units — up 11.1% year-over-year, but down 27.4% month-over-month. GM’s market share is expected to be 19.9 percent, down from 21.0% a year ago but up from 19.7% in December 2010.

Chrysler will sell 74,300 units — up 31.6% year-over-year, but down 25.6% month-over-month. Chrysler’s market share is expected to be 9.1%, up from 8.1% a year ago and up from 8.8% in December 2010.

Toyota (TM) will sell 117,400 units — up 18.8% year-over-year, but down 33.8% month-over-month. Toyota’s market share is expected to be 14.4%, up from 14.2% in January 2010 but down from 15.6% in December 2010.

Honda (HMC) will sell 81,800 units — up 21.3% year-over-year, but down 36.9% moth-over-month. Honda’s market share is expected to be 10.0%, up from 9.7% in January 2010 but down from 11.4% in December 2010.

Nissan (NSANY.PK) will sell 71,900 units — up 15.0% year-over-year but down 23.2% month-over-month. Nissan’s market share is expected to be 8.8%, down from 9.0% in January 2010 but up from 8.2% in December 2010.

Disclosure: Long SIRI