Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) Sovaldi has been a blockbuster. How big a blockbuster? It’s on track to sell more than $9 billion of its hepatitis-C drug. Citigroup’s Yaron Werber explains:
Sovaldi is tracking at $2.9B for the first twenty one weeks of launch and could post $9.5B in U.S sales for 2014, if Sovaldi scrips continue at same level as the recent week without any growth. Sovaldi Q2:14 U.S sales are tracking at $2.6B vs. Citi $2.3B vs. consensus $2.2B, if Sovaldi scrips continue at same level as the recent week without any growth. We anticipate that Sovaldi will materially exceed our and consensus ests and believe that posting >$9B in total sales in FY14 is possible. In the twenty first week of launch, Sovaldi's weekly TRx were 8,588. While this is only the twenty first week, it is still much ahead of protease inhibitor Incivek' launch which had 2,188 TRx in the twenty first week of launch.
Biogen Idec’s (BIIB) Tecfidera is also doing better than forecast. Werber explains:
Our proprietary IMS tracker suggests that 2014 U.S sales could reach $2.2B (vs. our ests of $2.0B and Consensus $1.9B). For Q2:14, sales are tracking at $474M (vs. our ests of $485M and consensus $457M) excluding the impact of inventory changes…The IMS data suggests that 600 patients recently started on Tecfidera. The current level of new starts is still very robust and has been stabilizing at these levels. This is encouraging as Biogen ests that there are ~1,000-1,200 MS patients who start or switch between drugs each week. We believe that the launch is going very well despite concerns about scrip trends.
Shares of Gilead Sciences have gained 1.1% to $79.58 at 1:09 p.m., while Biogen Idec has risen 1.2% to $286.47. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) has jumped 2.1% to $123.37, while the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) has advanced 1% to $225.58.
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