Guess Offers Bullish Long Play Off Earnings-Driven After Hours Moves

Guess? (GES) is due with its Q4 results in tonight's after-hours session, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect the company to report a profit of $1.05 per share on revenue of $779 million.

In the last four years of performance data MidnightTrader has tracked on GES, the stock has added to its earnings-driven extended-hours trade in next-day regular session action in 10 of the last 14 quarters.

Looking deeper into the performance data, GES has recorded an earnings-driven gain in the after-hours in nine of the 14 quarters tracked in our database. In seven of those quarters, or 78% of the time, the stock has added to its upside in the following day's regular session. On the downside, GES has seen five earnings-driven after-hours declines, and it just favors widening, adding to its negative trade three times.

• On Nov. 30, 2011, GES edged up 0.5% in after-hours trade despite missing Q3 estimates and setting its guidance below expectations. The stock firmed higher the next day, closing the Dec. 1 regular session up 5.3%.
• On Aug. 24, 2011, GES declined 4.4% in night trade after beating Q2 expectations but also guiding below Street estimates. The stock added to its downside the next day, closing the Aug. 25 regular session down 6.7%.
• On May 25, 2011, GES soared 12.8% in after-hours trade after blowing past Q1 estimates. The stock narrowed its upside the next day, closing the May 26 regular session up 11.1%.
• On Feb. 16, 2011, GES slumped 4.7% in after-hours trade after beating Q4 estimates but also setting its guidance below the Street view. The stock fell further the next day, closing the Feb. 17 regular session down 14%.
• On Nov. 23, 2010, GES jumped 8% in night trade after blowing past expectations, establishing guidance above the Street view and setting a special $2 per share dividend. The stock added to its upside the following day, closing the Nov. 24 regular session up 10.5%.
• On Aug. 25, 2010, GES dropped 7.8% in evening trade despite beating Q2 expectations. The stock tumbled lower the next day, closing the Aug. 26 regular session down 10.7%.
• On May 27, 2010, GES slumped 7.3% in evening trade after beating Q1 estimates but issuing a disappointing Q2 outlook. The stock cut its downside the following day, closing the May 28 regular session down 0.4%.
• On March 17, 2010, GES advanced 1.4% in after-hours trade after beating Q4 expectations and setting guidance in line to above the Street view. The stock held the same 1.4% advance in the March 18 regular session.
• On Nov. 30, 2009, GES jumped 7.9% in after-hours trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock firmed higher the next day, closing the Dec. 1 regular session up 12.8%.
• On Aug. 26, 2009, GES advanced 2% in after-hours trade after beating on Q2 but guiding mostly lower for its Q3. The stock continued heading higher the next day, closing the Aug. 27 regular session up 10.8%.
• On June 4, 2009, GES advanced 5% in evening trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock ended the June 5 regular session up 5.7%.
• On March 17, 2009, GES dipped 1.9% in after-hours action after beating Q4 estimates and issuing revenue guidance below the Street view. The stock reversed direction the following day, ending the March 18 regular session with a 14.1% gain.
• On Dec. 4, 2008, GES added 1.7% in extended-hours trade after beating Q3 estimates but setting guidance below the Street view. The stock ramped higher the following day, rising 6.4% in the Dec. 5 regular session.
• On Sept. 3, 2008, GES edged up 0.6% in the after-hours after topping Q2 estimates and setting guidance in a range that straddled the Street view. GES ended the Sept. 4 regular session with a 1.2% advance.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.