SolarCity (SCTY) leases solar panels. Tesla Motors (TSLA) manufactures and sells electric cars. And as we all know, they’re both the brainchild of one man: Elon Musk.
Reuters Which got me thinking: Does that link impact how Tesla and Solar City trade? On first glance, it sure appears that way. Today, for instance, SolarCity has dropped 4.7% after it beat fourth-quarter earnings forecasts but guided below Street expectations for the current quarter. Tesla, with little meaningful news of its own unless you count this, has fallen 1.5%.
To see if there was more than anecdotal evidence, I ran the 24-day correlation (essentially one month of trading) between SolarCity and Tesla. A correlation of 100% means two stocks move in lockstep, while a correlation of -100% means they move in complete opposition. Right now, the correlation between the two stocks is 61.1%, well above the 12-month average of 37.7%. During the past 12 months, the correlation between the two stocks has been as low as -39.8%, which means they were generally heading in opposite directions during that period–and as high as 77.9%, meaning they were pretty much marching to the beat of the same drummer.
This chart, too, shows how the relationship between Tesla and Solar City waxes and wanes. (Please note that the scales are different. Tesla is on the right, Solar City on the left.)
Of course, correlation is not causation. And it also tells us little about the magnitude of the moves. Tesla Motors has gained 572% during the past 12 months, while SolarCity is up “just” 330%. Clearly, though, both stocks are benefiting from living in the glow of Elon Musk, even if he’s not the next Steve Jobs.
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