Friday, August 3, 2012

10 Scary Charts: An Update

(Please note this post is the latest update to a series of articles, the last being on September 23)

Here are 10 charts that I find disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they depict such a tenuous situation now - 15 months after the official (as per the 9-20-10 NBER announcement) June 2009 end of the recession - is especially notable.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve and represent the most recently updated data. I find these charts valuable as they depict our current situation in a longer-term historical context.

Housing starts (last updated 12-16-10):

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The Federal Deficit (last updated 10-18-10):

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Federal Net Outlays (last updated 10-18-10):

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State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-30-10):

(Click to enlarge)

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 1-10-11):

(Click to enlarge)

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (Percent Change from Year Ago)(last updated 1-10-11):

(Click to enlarge)

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 1-6-11):

(Click to enlarge)

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 1-7-11):

(Click to enlarge)

These next two charts are from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve. These charts really provide a perspective on the length and extent of this downturn.

The first depicts our unemployment situation (last updated 1-7-11):


(Click to enlarge)

This depicts output (last updated 12-22-10):

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I will update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring.

The S&P500 is at 1283.76 as this post is written.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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